One of the experimental rules implemented in the Atlantic League for the 2023 season has been a directive that a pitcher may only disengage from the pitching rubber once during an at-bat. At the Major League level, pitchers are allowed two disengagements. A disengagement would include a pitcher making a pickoff attempt at any base, faking a pickoff, or otherwise stepping off the rubber with the batter in the batter’s box.

If there is a runner at first and the pitcher throws over in an effort to pickoff the runner, that counts as a disengagement. If the pitcher throws over a second time during the same at-bat, the runner must be called out on the pickoff attempt or the pitcher will be charged with a balk and the runner advances.

How has that affected stolen bases in the Atlantic League in 2023?

Historically, over the first 24 seasons of the ALPB, base runners have been successful on 74.5 percent of stolen base attempts. There have been 22,744 stolen bases and 7,787 caught stealing over the first 24 years. That comes out to a rate of 0.91 stolen bases per game, or less than one-half of a stolen base per team per game.

In 2021, base-stealers’ success rate peaked at 81.7 percent. The lowest rate of successful steals came in 2003 when only 66.8 percent of base thieves were successful.

The stolen bases per game rate topped out at 1.18 per game in the Atlantic League’s inaugural year in 1998 and again in 2000. In 17 of the ALPB’s first 24 years, stolen bases averaged less than one per game.

But with the new single disengagement rule, stolen bases and the success rate are both at all-time highs.

In 2023, Atlantic League baserunners are called safe on 82 percent of stolen base attempts, successfully swiping 1,209 bases while only being caught 265 times. Likewise, the per game rate of stolen bases is at an all-time high of 1.29 thefts per game.

Stolen base rates in the Atlantic League had been on the rise over the last several years. In 2022, base stealers stole 1.17 bases per game with a .800 success rate. The 2022 Gastonia Honey Hunters set the Atlantic League record with 305 stolen bases and accounted for nearly 20% of all swipes in the ALPB (19.8%). Goose Gozzo’s club was successful on 79.6% of stolen base attempts.

In 2023, Lancaster is leading the way with 147 stolen bases (1.55 per game) and the Barnstormers are succeeding on 83 percent of their steals. York is right behind the Barnstormers with 137 steals and a league-best 88.96% success rate. The Revs have swiped 137 and been caught just 17 times. York has the top two base thieves in the league with Tomo Otosaka leading the way with 35 followed by Trey Martin with 32. Martin has been cut down just twice while Otosaka has been tossed out five times.

While the previous league-high for stolen base success was 81.7 percent in 2021, this year, eight of the 10 Atlantic League clubs are swiping bases at over 80 percent. Only Southern Maryland (78%) and Spire City (75%) are below the 80% threshold.

Has the single disengagement rule increased offensive productivity in the Atlantic League? The numbers would seem to indicate it has.